Exactly 2 years from now, India would
be in the middle of a General election. UP election was semi-final and 2019 Lok
Sabha election will be final. So how are the things looking now as the dust
settles after BJP’s grand victory in UP? Is Modi a sure shot favorite for 2019?
Congress is down, AIADMK is busy with internal tussles, Mamta’s note ban
opposition has come to halt, Nitish is feeling uncomfortable with Lalu. So let
us speculate about the possible scenarios of 2019.
There is no doubt among political analysts
that Modi is a front runner for 2019 election unless he does some severe
mistake. After the historic win in UP in 2014 Lok Sabha election, no one had
expected that BJP would cross 300 but BJP decimating SP, BSP & Congress. As
per some reports, many opposition voters also liked Modi for center but voted
for SP/BSP in state. BJP has spread its wing in North East. BJP will have to
find new grounds to cover losses in Hindi belt. Unless there is a very strong
Modi wave, BJP may lose some seats in Gujrat, Rajasthan, MP, Bihar and may be
in UP. You many not sweep Gujrat, Rajasthan and win 71 seats in UP always even
if you are no. 1 party by a distance. It
can offset some of those losses with gains in Maharashtra and Orrisa. BJP will
be on very strong wicket if they make inroads in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal.
Let us look at opposition. Congress is
down and perhaps may be out unless it revives in reaming portion of Hindi
heartland of Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh. By 2019, it will be sitting on
opposition benches in Karnataka assembly. Rahul Gandhi is fast becoming a hopeless
leader although his speeches, working style may have improved in last 2 years.
There is no comparison with Mr. Modi. I doubt in a presidential style election,
Rahul may not defeat Modi even in a single state. Another contender for top
post is Mamta Banarjee. She is still going strong in West Bengal but 9 years of
anti-incumbency may damage her in 2019. Her opposition of note ban has fizzled
out. She may not be acceptable candidate among opposition parties. Her party is
reeling under acquisition of many scams which has potential to damage her in
2019. Left may lose principal opposition party status in Bengal and it will be
limited to Kerala and Tripura. The current left leadership seems to be
completely out of touch of ground realities. Nitish kumar may be a good candidate for challenging
Modi in 2019 but JD(U) is not even no.1 party in Bihar. His association with
Lalu Yadav may have dented his clean image. Another name is Arvind Kejriwal. I
think it is not appropriate to talk about a 4 MP party leader becoming PM in
next election. But due to Media propaganda, I have to talk about him. He failed
miserably in Punjab which was within touching distance 6 months ago. His
performance in Delhi & Punjab will depend on his work in Delhi. If he fails
to deliver then AAP may become Vinod Kambli of Indian politics. There are many
other small parties which may challenge BJP in their own den but they may not
have power to alter the course of a Lok Sabha election.
So what are the challenges before Mr.
Modi? The biggest challenge will be to stop a Bihar type grand alliance.
SP+BSP+Congess may create problems for Mr. Modi in 2019 in UP.
Lalu+Nitish+Congess is a formidable power in Bihar. But we must remember that
Lok Sabha elections have different issues compared to an assembly election. And
Modi with unprecedented popularity may turn 2019 parliamentary election into a presidential
election. Another challenge is that BJP
government at center & states will have to deliver on most of its poll
promises. Yogi Adityanath is a big gamble in UP. If the gamble succeeds then Modi’s
half work is done for 2019. But we must remember that even top favorites loses
the game many times. So Modi will have to be careful and opposition will have
to put a spirited fight to stop Modi. We may be heading for a fascinating
election in 2019 but anything can happen in coming 2 years. It is too early to
ask opposition to work for 2023 Lok Sabha election.
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