Even in 2020, caste & religion play an important role in the politics of India. Many times, Bihar and UP are associated with caste politics but this is the problem of the whole of India. Caste equations play an important role even in more educated & developed states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, etc.
In Bihar, caste politics has higher visibility because the power of caste is assumed to be proportional to the number of MLAs belong to that caste. Unlike many other states, political power has an upper hand than money power in Bihar. As always caste politics is going to play an important role in the 2020 assembly election. But then the caste lines are becoming more blurry with each passing election. Otherwise, Modi would not have swept the 2014 and 2019 General election. But then caste politics reappeared in the 2015 general election and Grand Alliance humiliated BJP. Let us see analyze how the caste equation can affect the 2020 election.
- The core vote bank of RJD (Yadav + Muslim) is still by and large intact. And RJD-Congress alliance means that they would get almost all Muslim votes. This alliance has the potential to dominate Muslim majority seats in North-East Bihar (Katihar & Purnia region which is very near to Bangladesh). But Owaisi's AIMIM can damage the Grand alliance as they surprised last year by winning the Kishanganj by-poll.
- BJP is gradually becoming the second choice of the Yadav community. majority are still with RJD but BJP is trying to get some votes as BJP is trying to create a new leadership in form of junior Union Home Minister Nityanad Rai (a leader from the Yadav community). In some pockets where BJP has strong Yadav leaders like Ramkripal Yadav, Nityanad Rai BJP may get significant Yadav votes.
- Among non-Yadav OBCs, Koiri & Kushwaha community are still with Nitish Kumar despite the emergence of Upendra Kushwaha. JD(U) has a slight edge over RJD & BJP among other OBCs (called MBCs) due to the popularity of Nitish Kumar.
- Among Dalits, LJP has a vote bank among the Paswan community but Nitish Kumar has an edge in the Mahadalit (a sub-category of Dalit) community. RJD, Congress, and BJP may also win a section of Dalits. Nitish Kumar has been very successful in creating a vote bank among MBC and Mahadalits.
- BJP is favorite to win the most number of upper caste votes. Congress still has a small loyal vote bank among the upper caste. JD(U) and RJD have some upper caste leaders who can get votes in their own pockets. The state president of RJD Jagdanad Singh is a Rajput but it seems that RJD has lost some of its loyal Rajput vote banks after the sidelining & death of Raghuwansh Babu. Also last year, RJD had opposed the reservation of poor General category in Parliament.
- On paper, NDA has an edge as per caste calculation. It's quite clear there is a fatigue factor with Nitish Kumar but his challenger Tejaswi Yadav is no match for Nitish Kumar. PM Modi is very popular in Bihar and he can swing the election with a solid alliance. Congress is the only party that gets the votes of all community but then it is so weak that it can't win even 5–10 seats on its own. Bihar has three major political parties - BJP, RJD, and JD(U), and some minor parties like LJP, Congress, etc. So, arithmetically BJP&JD(U) has a lead over RJD & Congress. But any election is not over until it's over.
Corona, returning migrant laborers can still create an issue for NDA but then RJD has failed to present an alternative model of governance. Even in 2020, the memory of the Lalu-Rabri era (1990–2005) continues to haunt RJD. The seat-sharing and mobilization of voters on the polling day will play an important role. BJP still enjoys a good lead over others on social media in Bihar and this can be crucial in virtual election rallies.
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