Thursday, September 17, 2020

How long India-China stand-off will continue?

Most probably Chinese President Xi Jinping thought that India is a pushover and grabbing the land from India will make Xi more popular in China. But like his friends in Pakistan, he made a mistake of understating Indian response.

Now India has decided to hit back along LAC and decided to challenge Chinese aggression, China is rattled. China's biggest concern was that India was building infrastructure along LAC. They have built their roads & bridges but they don't want India to do the same. The Galwan clash has won India the right of building infrastructure along LAC. Now, India is building additional roads at a greater pace along LAC and India will not ready to stop building roads with China. The preemptive action on the night of 29th & 30th August by India has ensured that any agreement would mean both Armies going back to the status quo of April 2020. This would mean that China will not be able to stop India from building roads.China had not anticipated such an Indian response and its leadership is rattled. That's why we can find so many articles in Global times threatening India. There are also reports that China has decided to teach India a lesson. On the other hand, India has decided not to cede an inch under Chinese aggression. So both sides are ready to continue the stand-off. The winter weather in such harsh terrain would be very tough for both Armies to continue the stand-offs. Traditional wisdom would mean both armies withdrawing in winter but enemies strike when you least expect them to attack. Pakistan captured Indian peaks along LOC in the Kargil sector in winter of 1998–99 when the Indian Army vacated those peaks in winter.

So, India can’t afford to withdraw in winter. China can't withdraw for winter because any Chinese withdrawal would signal to the world that China has lost the stand-off. And any such symbolic withdrawal would dent the image of Xi Jinping. Even the legacy of Indian PM Modi is on the line in this stand-off. So both sides are ready to dig in for a long stand-off. But the Indian side has a slight advantage that it is more accustomed to clashes/tensions in such harsh winter (due to its experience in Siachen & Kargil). Indian side very well knows that they can't trust Chinese (due to the historically changing position of China) and any agreement would not mean anything in the long future.

So, the onus is on China. The Indian position is clear that both countries should restore the status quo of April 2020. If China agrees to it then it would mean that both objectives of China to start the standoff would remain unfulfilled - stopping India from building the roads & grabbing Indian land. Now Xi Jinping is looking for an exit strategy and if he fails to get a respectable strategy then the standoff will continue for many more months.

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