The un-easy Grad Alliance of Bihar – Nitish may be trying to corner Lalu

The Modi winning streak was stopped in Bihar and Grand alliance (JD(U)+ RJD+ Congress) had scored a resounding victory in 2015 assembly polls. BJP was humiliated with just 58 seats for NDA compared to 178 seats won by the grand alliance. This was supposed to be a new beginning of anti-BJP politics in India. It was demonstrated that BJP generally find it tough if all major opposition parties fights election together against BJP. But the grand alliance in Bihar has been a one off alliance till now. In UP, BSP and RLD didn’t join or was not allowed to join SP-Congress alliance and BJP won historic mandate. Still many political observers are of opinion that a combined opposition could create problems for BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election.

But now Bihar’s Grand Alliance is having un-easy time. This alliance was formed on the basis of stopping BJP from conquering Bihar and there was less ideological similarity between the alliance partners. Nitish always had an image of corruption free leader but RJD head Lalu Yadav had been convicted in a corruption case. Nitish had been anti-Congress leader for his whole life starting from JP movement. We all know that there is no permanent friend and enemy in politics. There had been tussle between RJD and JDU from beginning but the differences between the partners are now clearly visible now. When BJP leader Shushil Modi made corruption allegation against Lalu Yadav, then Nistish Kumar dared Central Government to conduct a fair enquiry of the allegations. Central Government obliged to Nitish’s request and ordered a probe. There were massive raid conducted on properties/companies of Yadav family and their associates. It seems that Lalu is angry on suggestion to center given by Nitish. Lalu’s angry tweet about BJP new partner was a hint that BJP is going close to JDU. Last week, Nitish skipped opposition meeting at Sonia’s house but met PM Modi. Supreme Court has open the other cases of Fodder scam and hearing in these cases will be done on fast track basis. As an exception among opposition leaders, Nitish had not criticized Modi’s demonetization move.

Is Nitish Kumar going back to NDA? It is very difficult to say but we can be certain that as of now Nitish may continue in Grand Alliance. He has a chance to become PM candidate of combined opposition (even though chances may be less). He is CM of Bihar and even if he crosses over to NDA, he will remain CM or he may become a senior minister like Defense minister or so. And if he goes to center then there will be power vacuum in Bihar. So it seems that BJP may not offer him a better deal than opposition. He may try his luck with opposition parties in 2019. NDA has already 30 Lok Sabha seats out of 40 seats and they may not offer more seats to JDU. If JDU concedes more number of Lok Sabha seats to BJP then BJP will have to sacrifice more member of seats in Bihar Assembly election. This is quite contrary to the philosophy of Modi and BJP President Amit Shah. They want to make inroads in new territories even at the cost of allies. Nitish kumar may be trying to tame RJD and Lalu Yadav by flirting with BJP. A favorable centeral government can help Nitish Kumar in development of Bihar. Also BJP has been targeting only Lalu Yadav not Nitish/JDU in Bihar. Lalu may pose a bigger challenge to BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar. If somehow Lalu is cornered then BJP can respect its performance of 2014 in Bihar in 2019.

Lalu is a worried man these days. If he goes to jail in connection to fodder scam, then he will have to nominate his successor. His younger son may be persuaded by Nitish to become another Akhilesh. It is rumored that his two sons don’t have good relation between them. His eldest daughter is also eying some posts and the big leaders of RJD are not happy with the promotion of Lalu family. The real problem will arise if charge sheets are files against Lalu’s children in the disproportionate income case. Nitish may be waiting for such opportunity to put Lalu in its place. The law & order situation has become worse in Bihar and there is a perception that the government is not performing up to the mark. So Nitish may well make Lalu a fall guy and come clean to fight future election battles.