Monday, August 31, 2020

Changes of comback of Congress in Indian politics

Congress is a party which has rises from setbacks (like in 77, 89, 96, 98 and 99) and ruled India again. Many times, Congress party was ruled out and it came back strongly.

So, there is big possibility that Congress can revive its position in Indian politics. But then there is a fundamental difference between this Congress and Congress of yesterday. Today Congress has shrieked from a pan Indian party to a relevant party in only half of India. Congress has lost ground in UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi etc. and the party has lost its prominence in Maharashtra. There is a theory that in case Congress vote share comes down below 20% in a state, it is not able to revive. Despite so many consecutive losses in Gujarat elections, Congress party has a loyal vote share of around 40%. Congress won three state elections defeating BJP in Dec 2018. So, I think real problem of Congress in states are third front parties not BJP. If you take out national election then Congress has performed relatively well in assembly elections in state where its primary rival is BJP. They did gave BJP tough fight even they lost states like Gujarat, Haryana etc.

We all know that Congress is over dependent on Gandhi family and at this time Gandhi family doesn't have strength to revive Congress on its own. Rahul Gandhi is still the most important leader of Congress but without any responsibility. The main focus of Congress party is to defeat BJP rather than to grow Congress. Congress must make a vision for next 10–15 years and be ready to accept electoral losses in this time period. In upcoming Bihar election, Congress will fight as junior partner of RJD. If Congress wants to build party in states like Bihar, UP, West Bengal etc. then it should fight elections alone and try to promote regional faces. e.g. - Politics of Bihar is going through transition from one generation to another. RJD has Tajwaswi Yadav, BJP has Nityanad Rai, LJP has Chirag Paswan and Congress? Even majority of Biharis may not remember the state president of So, Congress should start from scratch and focus for 2025 or 2030 Bihar assembly election. Similar template with local twisting can be used everywhere.

Another important things for Congress would to give autonomy to its regional leadership. Congress should divest power to its state units. Central leadership can act like a union or federation of state units. Another issue is that Congress has hardly any succession plan. Infighting in Punjab Congress has started for post Amrinder Singh era. We have seen fight between young leadership and old leadership in Rajasthan, MP etc. Similar tussle happens in BJP as well but they manage well.

I still think Congress may have a bright future in India if it acts smarty with a long term vision. Otherwise the Present Congress leadership may well go down in history as later Mughals who lost their empire.

 

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