Importance of BMC election & Maharashtra Civic Polls

In 1990 Gujrat assembly polls, a splinter group of Janata Dal was no.1 party and BJP was second. What happened in next assembly elections, Janata Dal & its splinter groups were wiped out by BJP & BJP is ruling since 1995. Janata Dal had also a foothold in Rajasthan, MP. They allied with BJP in 1989 General election and within a decade they were wiped out from these states. Same story was repeated in Karnataka (but to a lesser extent where JD(S) is still no 3 force). BJP was junior ally to Bansi Lal & Chautalas and now they are in power. Nitish Kumar beat BJP in their own game and captured power in Bihar.

In Indian politics, we rarely see an alliance which can go on for many years except Left alliance. BJP-Shiv Sena Alliance stood for more than 25 years. BJP was an obedient loyal junior partner in the alliance. Shiv Sena was fighting on more seats in Assembly election & BJP was contesting on more seats in Lok Sabha election. They rules the state for 5 years in 1990s. But after that they were humiliated consecutively 3 times in assembly elections by Congress-NCP alliance. But the alliance maintained its stronghold over Mumbai Corporation (BMC). It’s the richest civic body in India. Last years’ its budget was whopping 37000 crores. Shiv Sena was strong in Mumbai, Marathwara region & BJP was strong in Vidharbha and they had almost equal presence all over the state. But a new BJP emerged under Modi where it has little respect for its allies and they wanted to grow over even at the expense of their allies. Both parties parted away in 2014 assembly election but eventually came together to form the Govt. Junior partner had become now no1 by a long distance. And there was a bitter fight over Suresh Prabhu’s cabinet berth and many more issues.

Shiv Sena & BJP also parted away for 2017 civic elections and fought a bitter election. Surprisingly they have demolished Congress out of scene. BJP is playing ruling party role at state level & Shiv Sena is main opposition (despite being in Govt.). In Mumbai the role is reversed. It seems that as of now there is no place for the 3^rd party. Had they won so many seats if they would have fought in alliance? Probably no. Election is not a simple athematic. Just look at the BMC tally, both parties have improved their performance at the expense of Congress, NCP & MNS. Now North Indian & Gujratis in Mumbai have an option other than Congress i.e. BJP and Shiv Sena can aggressively woo Marathi speaking people from MNS. This election has been a face saver election for Uddhav Thackeray, but also a huge boost for CM Devendra Fadnavis (who failed to win Mumbai but improved BJP’s tally substantially).

Finally after Sharad Pawar, we have a leader in Devendra Fadnavis who has a Pan Maharashtra appeal – from Wardha to Mumbai. It was a big gamble for BJP to make a Brahmin from Nagpur CM of the state. But it seems that gamble has paid off. He has also retained his hometown of Nagpur & won Pune & Nashik. Remember this election was fought on the name of CM without using Modi card. Another winner is Uddhav Thackeray. His party has again become largest party in BMC. Now he is firm leader of Shiv Sena and the magic of Raj Thackeray has gone. But he will have to build on this victory as Shiv Sena is still not a Pan Maharashtra party. It seems that Shiv Sena has got some votes for Congress voters just to keep BJP out of BMC.  

It is interesting to see how Shiv Sena will recat to this victory. Whether they will remain with BJP or pull the plug on Fadnavis Govt. They may need BJP in BMC also. I think very few MLAs would like to go to mid-term poll so soon. And NCP may play an import role also if Sena withdraws the support from BJP. But just winning BMC & Thane may not give Sena enough reason to go to mid-term poll now. But in politicy you can’t never be certain of anything.