Which party has edge in UP Election?

We are into middle of UP election. It is as tough as it was in beginning to take a call. And its 7 round long, so the situation can change quickly. All the 3 contestants are fighting very hard. There is no big scale polarization & cast loyalties are intact. And these factors make it very hard to predict.

Let us talk about all the 3 parties –

·         SP/Congress – The alliance seemed like a game changer in beginning. But despite the consolidation of Yadavs & Muslims (largely except some pockets), it seems that Akhilesh may have errored in forming alliance with Rahul. 105 seats to Congress is a no brainer. At max he should have left 60-70 seats. At many places Congress seems to be on back foot.  Despite being in Govt. for 5 years, Akhilesh enjoys a good image and it seems that he is there for long time. It was his master stoke to revolt against old guards and shed anti-incumbency. But still he can’t hide away from Gunda Raj of SP. Even his supporters accept that, law & order was a big issue during SP Govt. Despite having good image, SP is not attracting much top-up votes which could have given SP an edge. But SP can’t be discounted. They are still very much in fight & Akhilesh may end up becoming CM again on 11^th March.

·         BJP – Everyone thought that demonetization will be a big issue for both BJP & its opponents. But in ground it seems that it is not a big issue. People have faced issues but there are many other more important issues. It’s amazing that Modi is still very popular in his 3^rd year of Central Govt. People still have faith in him. There is no other central figure in the country who can attract votes across the country. BJP has allied with Bharatiya Samaj Party & Apna Dal may help it in Easter UP. Jats may have created a problems for BJP in Western UP. But we still not know the extent of damage. Many analysts (even a few anti-Modi ones) have started to say that BJP has slight edge. BJP is hoping to keep its upper cast votes intact and then is attracting non Yadav OBC & non-Jatav SC votes. This may be the deciding factor. BJP has not projected a CM face like Bihar but in UP it has a dedicated vote bank now and it can’t be routed like Bihar election. Also BJP is trying to polarize the election a little bit n hope that minorities don’t go solidly behing SP/Congress. And if it does happens, some degree of counter-polarization may help BJP. We may see a BJP Chief Minister in UP again. Irrespective of winning or losing, it’s clear that BJP will become a pillar in UP again.

·         BSP- 6 or 8 months ago, it was an election for Mayawati to lose. She was gaining momentum but it seems that somehow momentum has been lost. The Congress SP alliance & emeragence of Akilesh in SP may have dashed her hopes of consolidating minority votes. She has given 97 tickets to minorities but baring some pockets her Dalit-Muslim alliance is non-starter. Her core votes are intact but apart from core Jatav & other SC votes, she need more votes to form Govt. Upper casts mainly Brahmins helped her to grab power in 2007. But she may not able to get that top-up votes this time. It seems that she may be heading for 3^rd position. But normally poll pundits have underestimated BSP always. So Behan Mayawati may surprise us on 11^th March even though her chances are remote.

It has been a fascinating election this time. 11^th March is not far away. We can hope that UP’s janta will give a clear majority to a party or alliance. BJP may have slight edge till now but Akhilesh may surprise us.