Sunday, March 5, 2017

China should forget Tawang and build a healthy relationship with India

A former Chinese diplomat Dai Bingguo (China’s main boarder negotiator with India during 2003 to 2013) has said that if India concedes Tawang in east, China would compensate in western sector. Indian Govt. & media has dismissed this proposal. Tawang is one of the 640 districts and it is a populated area unlike inhabited Aksai Chin.
Can a Govt. ceded a part of Indian Territory? As per a Supreme Court ruling of 1956, it can be done with Parliament passing the constitution amendment with 2/3rd majority. When Indian exchanged enclaves with Bangladesh & lost 40 square Km of land, then Indian constitution was amended in 2015. So technically Indian can cede land to China but for this there should be a political consensus & I don’t thing such consensus can be built anytime soon. If India cedes Twanag, then it will open a Pandora Box. Pakistan will ask for Jammu & Kashmir, Bangladesh will ask for a few islands in Ganga delta, Myanmar & Indonesia will ask for a few island in Adman Sea.
It may look logical for some foreigners that India should settle boarder dispute with China on the same line Russians settled their dispute with China. Russia ceded some territory to China & China renounced it claim over all other Russian territory. Even in 1953, China & Pakistan exchanged some territories and solved their border issue. (But that treaty was illegal as India claims Jammu & Kashmir as its integral part and Pakistan had not rights to give 5K odd Sq. Km of Indian territory to China). China has bullied many of its neighbors like Pakistan, Russia, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Laos and annexed/exchanged territories for renouncing its claim over other territories. But China still have land or maritime boarder disputes with India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines etc. China had invaded India (1962) and Vietnam (1979) and captured parts of these sovereign countries. In 1950s and early 60s, China increased its claim in J &K and NEFA (Arunachal Pradesh) sector almost every month. There is a vast difference between Chinese official map of 1955 and 1961. War with India was manufactured with new claims on Indian territories. China doesn’t recognize McMahon Line as boarder with India but accepted the same line as China-Myanmar boarder.
Chinese’s nominal GDP is more than 3.5 times larger than that of India, its area is almost 3times than that of India. Its armed forces are almost twice in number and have better equipment (3 time more tanks, 2.5 times more fighters jets, 5 times more submarine, better & long range missiles, 2.5 times more nuclear weapon etc). China has foreign exchange reserve in 2016 was US$3.12 trillion and that of India is US$ 365 billion. China has lifted almost 800 million people (more than 4 times than that of India) out of poverty in last 30 years. Chinese economic success of last 3 decades doesn’t have any parallel in world history. India has lagged behind in economic growth compared to China. Today, China is the manufacturing hub of world. It manufactures practical everything from a screw to a passenger jet. China sends most number of students to West for higher studies. 18 Chinese Universities are among top 100 universities in the world. India may be ahead in IT sector, soft power, English language, democracy but China has a huge lead when overall economic scenario is concerned.

But despite being weak compared to China, India is no pushover. You can’t just ignore 1/5th of human population, 3rd largest economy (on PPP basis), world’s largest functioning democracy, 3rd largest Army, 4th largest Airforce, 5th largest Navy and 600 million young people under 35. We lost badly in 1962 war due to our own shortcomings but now we are ready. Yes, we may never recover Aksai Chin again from a United China in war or negotiation but that doesn’t mean that we will give Arunachal Pradesh (Tawang or any other territory). China can get Tawang sector only when it crushes Indian armed force & its people and this is not possible. China must be day dreaming but it is matter of death & life for us. We will not concede an inch of our territory whatever the cost may be. This is Modi’s India not Nehru’s India. India will have a friendly relationship with China but not on cost sovereignty. Bilateral trade of India & China in 2015 was 70 billion dollars which can cross 100 billion USD in a few years’ time. India wants to engage China in a friendly way but China should also keep India’s interest in mind. Both countries together with 1/3rd of humainty can change the world for good but can destroy the world also. 

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