Have you seen
any PM doing a road show for an assembly election? The answer is straight NO. But
current PM did unprecedented back to back road shows on Saturday & Sunday
in Varanasi. Even today he is addressing rallies in the same area. Indian Prime
Minister has spent 3 days in his own constituency of Varanasi in Purvanchal
area of UP for assembly election campaign. As central minister Upendra Kushwaha
said that it is not appropriate for a PM to do road shows, we need to look into
the context to get the clear picture.
Narendra Modi is
in 3rd years of his term. UP gave him 73 MPs in 2014 and without
such unprecedented victory in UP, BJP would not have won majority of its own. Even
during Vajpayee era, BJP never crossed 57 in undivided UP. After having testing
bitter defeat BJP is in no mood to concede defeat in UP. A win in UP may pave
way for Modi in 2019. It is very crucial to keep the momentum for Modi. We will
have Gujrat election soon in December 2017 followed by elections in BJP ruled
state of MP, Rajasthan & Chhattisgarh. So if BJP loses UP and any of the
other BJP ruled state, then BJP may cede momentum in the run up to 2018. Even
if BJP doesn’t win UP, It must get least 150-170 to save the face of PM. BJP
was defeated by a united opposition in Bihar and Modi doesn’t want to repeat
this.
If you look at
newspaper articles, you will find a few non-right wing journalists like Rajdeep
Sardesai, Pranab Roy etc are saying that BJP may win the UP election. BJP may
have suffered some losses in western UP, but it was in race in central UP &
Bundelkhand. So a comfortable victory in Purvanchal is key for BJP to cross the
magic figure of 202 in UP. Most of the political analysts says that BJP is ahead
in Purvanchal. But SP/Congress & BSP is still in fight and there are some dissidents
in BJP. That’s why Modi may have camped in Varanasi. The moral of troops are
always high when a General fights from front. Modi’s road show was even
appreciated in minorities dominated areas. Even though minorities may not vote
for BJP but there is little goodwill among them for PM. And Modi’s campaign in Purvanchal
seems to be improving BJP’s chance in last 2 rounds of election. Purvanchal was
not a BJP bastian for last 15-17 years and a fatal blow to SP/Congress alliance
can be given here.
Irrespective of
win or loss in UP, Narendra Modi will remain the most popular leader in India
by a distant margin. He may face regional challenger in many states but I can’t
see any leader challenging him in 2019 election nationally as of now. BJP doesn’t
have a CM candidate in UP and its fighting election of the shoulders of Modi.
If the win or loss is going to be Modi’s loss & win then why not allow him
to give 100%. Only election result will tell that whether Modi’s extensive campaign
was fruitful for BJP or not.
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