BJP
supporters say that one of the highlights of Modi Government has been its successful
foreign policy. So I thought to evaluate Modi’s foreign policy with respect to
China. Let us be clear that each & every Indian PM in past had not succeeded
in their China policy.We are
aware about Indi’s humiliating loss to China in 1962 boarder war. We Indians
still don’t trust China even though we are very happy to use Chinese products.
Our government and people have not talked about China openly till recent times.
We still have a fear or suspicion of China in mind which stopped us to debate
about China. During Vajpayee years, then defense minister George Fernandis
openly said that China was our no. 1 enemy and his statement was criticized heavy
by Indian media. But we have become more open about China. Sino-Indo relation
have deteriorated during Modi era but India has learned to take on china head
on. Previous PMs like Manmohan Singh or Vajpayee may have sent delegation in
China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) submit with some reservations or protests over
CPEC. But India was only one major country which boycotted OBOR submit. Many
Indians experts say that India should have participated and should take the
advantage of this massive infrastructure project. But Modi has made sovereignty
of India top priority. India will not accept any project which violates our sovereignty.
India considers Pak Occupied Kashmir as integral part and can’t accept a
project which passes through Jammu & Kashmir.India
after many years allowed Dalai Lama to visit Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh
despite massive diplomatic protests by China. It is a clear signal to China
that if China oppose India’s entry to NSG and block Indi’s move to ban Massod
Azhar in Security Council then India will take reciprocating actions. India has
recently conducted naval exercise with Singapore in South China Sea and India
has improved strategic relations with Australia & Japan in last three years.
China clearly understand that Indo-Japan-Australia alliance in Indo-Pacific regions
will create huge problems for China. China meanwhile has tried to surround
India with its string of pearl policy. It will virtually control Gwadar port in
Pakistan and it may get military access to Sri Lankan & Myanmar sea ports. China
is giving massive aids to Bangladesh & Nepal and it is difficult for India
to match such grants. All neighboring couriers of India have signed agreements
for OBPR projects. We may see a cold war like situation between India &
China if situations don’t improve soon.But there
are some silver linings also. India is collaborating with China in Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
and BRICS bank. An Indian (K V Kamath) is chairman of New Development Bank of
BRICS countries. India has become part of Shanghai Corporation forum and
we are already part of BRICS. China had pledged investment of 30 plus billion
USD when Chinese President visited India two years ago. Chinese companies are
heavly investing in India. Sino-Indo annual trade has crossed 75 billion USD
even though India has massive trade deficit with China. India had become new
market for Chinese companies & investors. Many popular Indian startups like
Paytm has been funded by Chinese investor money. Today China is openly
welcoming Indian software professions when western countries, Singapore,
Australia etc. are shutting door for Indian techies. Till recently Chinese
products were considered cheap and many still consider it cheap but the success
of Levevo & Xiomi have changed perception of Chinese products in India. Today
China can’t afford to lose Indian market.The
relationship between China & India has been of love & hate in recent
years. China should treat India as an emerging power and India should accept
the fact that China is clear no.2 power in the world. Its ok to have difference
but both countries should keep the dialogue channel open. Modi will have to maneuver
his China policy very carefully in next two years. He has so far played smart
game by confronting China but has also engaged China simultaneously. I can say
that Modi’s China record has not been average but next two years will be very
crucial. These two powers can make or break the future of world.
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