The fault lines in Asia are becoming clear now. On one hand there is China, Iran, Taliban backed Afghanistan and Pakistan and on other hand there is US, India, Saudi Arabia led GCC and Israel. This is quite in contrast with 1970s when Pakistan and Iran were close ally of America.
The total Chinese investment in Pakistan will be around 60 billion USD as part of CPEC whereas total Chinese investment in Iran would be 400 billion USD in next decade. So, its obvious that Chinese investment in Iran is around 8 times compared to Chines investment in Pakistan. Till now Pakistan was the biggest Chinese ally in this region and gradually Iran will replace it as the main Chinese ally. The monopoly of Pakistan for China may end.
Even when Iran and Pakistan were American allies, the relationship between Iran and Pakistan were not always cordial. Despite having friendly relation, Iranian Shah even considered capturing Pakistani part of Baluchistan during 1971 India-Pakistan war. So, there is no guaranty that the relationship between Iran and Pakistan will become very friendly. Pakistan also has good relationship with GCC and Saudi Arabia will not be happy to see Pakistan and Iran becoming close friends. Unlike Chinese investments, Saudi Arabia and UAE etc. give a lot of money to Pakistan as a grant and millions of Pakistani live and work in these countries. We must note that China has hardly given anything to Pakistan free (as a grant).
India is still a partner in Chabahar port and in case Iran replaces India with China in this project then there would be two Chinese port in 150 KM distance (Chabahar and Gwadar). And there is a thumb rule that a port needs almost 30 billion USD of economic hinterland for proper growth. And both ports lack such economic viability on its own. So, both ports will compete with each other for shipping (to Central Asia, Afghanistan) etc.Pakistan will gradually drift away from America and west. And we must note here that West (not China) is the main destination for Pakistan exports. The aim of BRI is to promote Chinese interests and Chinese goods and China wants to sell its products more than to buy from their partner countries.
As of now, it seems that Pakistan may get upper hand than India in Iran. But in long term it has potential to hurt Pakistani interests in gulf and west.
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