Previous long wars in 20th century have shown us that a country having high industrial base often wins the war (World wars, Korean war etc.). But on top of that many other factors come into play like terrain, will of countries to fight, alliances etc. Some notable exceptions are Vietnam wars (French, US and Chinese intervention), Afghanistan war (both Soviet and American intervention).
India and China were involved in hand to hand bloody fighting on night of 15th and 16th June in Galwan Valley. The India-China border stand off is still going on both Armies have amassed forces on the Line of Actual Control. Even though India and China are talking, the situation on the LAC can be still go out of hand and we can witness a war or skirmish.
- Both Armies match each other in men and material. One country may have advantage here and there but you can't say that a country has advantage on all three sectors (West, Middle and East).
- The morale of Indian soldiers are also very high compared to their PLA counterparts. Indian Army inflicted much more damage on PLA in Galwan. PLA has even not acknowledged their casualties and on other hand India PM has visited the forward posts in Ladakh.
- India has local advantage in Air power as India have Airports in vicinity of LAC whereas China doesn't have any Airport at normal altitude near Indian borders. So, Indian plans will take off with full fuel & weapons load and Chinese plane will take off with reduced payload. But then Chinese have more number of fighters (the catch is that the Airports near India doesn't have enough capacity to host more number of planes). India has better quality of fighters in the theatre like Rafale, Su 30 MKI compared to Chinese J-20 and their Su-27s and its clones.
- China has better infrastructure along LAC but India is fast catching up. But India has a shorter supply lines from its headland. Whereas Chinese Eastern heartland is thousands of KM away from Ladakh. India can send men and material faster to the front line.
- China will have advantage in case of very long war as its industrial might is far superior than India. It can offset India's advantage like high morale, better fighters, shorter supply lines etc.
- India has another enemy in form of Pakistan and Pakistan can attack India from other side. Whereas China has many rivals in East like Japan, US, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia etc. So basically India will have more allies in case of a very long war.
- India can create havoc on Chinese shipping lanes in Indian Ocean region and China is not in position to fight a naval war with India in Indian Ocean (thousands of KM away from bases).
- Other factor which will come into play would be the will of people to defend their country. Both India and China have almost 1.4 billion people and both countries are unconquerable due to its sheer size. Being and Indian, I can say that in case of war, Indians would fight the war till the last person and even if Indian front is broken in any front every Indian village will become a Stalingrad. China doesn't have this issue because even if they loses Tibet then its not “proper” China.
I don't see a possibility of a long or ultra long war between India and China. India by no means is weak against China and may advantage over China is a short war. Any long war mean a world war and it can't remain a localized war.
This was first published on Quora - https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-that-India-would-be-able-to-fight-a-full-fledged-war-with-China-after-the-Galwan-clash/answer/अचल-गौतम-Achal-Gautam
No comments:
Post a Comment