Possibility of Grand Alliance against BJP in 2019

Opposition political parties have started talks about a grand alliance against BJP in 2019 elections. Congress President Sonia Gandhi has started consulting opposition parties for joint candidate in upcoming Presidential election. As per some reports other parties like JD(U) have started talks about joint front. RJD president Lalu Yadav have openly talked about grand alliance in West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Let us look at the possibility of Grand Alliance.

Any alliance need a bigger party or a charismatic leader to hold it together. Janta Dal was a big party to form National Front Government in 1989 and United Front Government in 1996. Any alliance of 5-6 equal partners may be very difficult. Sonia Gandhi is trying to form opposition unity in Presidential election to save his party from revolt. We all have seen the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. As of today, he is no match for Narendra Modi or even a regional leader. There are high chances of revolt in Congress if he is made president now and Sonia Gandhi has sensed this. That’s why she may have postponed her retirement. Remember she didn’t even campaigned for last round of assembly election in Punjab & UP. Rahul Gandhi will need to change his political style to stay relevant. There are high chances that Congress will be left ruling only Punjab, Mizoram & Meghalaya by 2019. If Congress doesn’t perform well in Gujrat, MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in coming elections, then Congress may be relegated from serious challenger to BJP to a dying party.

Without a strong leadership, Grand alliance idea may not took off from ground. Congress still has some votes in all corner of India and it is only Pan India party other than BJP as of now despite 2014 Lok Sabha disaster. In UP, it will be very difficult for SP and BSP to come together. Congress + SP + BSP + RLD may be a formidable challenge for BJP in UP. But will Mayawati forget the attack on her life in 1995 by SP goons? In Bihar, everything is not fine for grand alliance. RJD have started flexing its muscles and the law order has gone for a toss. I am not able to understand that why Mamta Banarjee will take help from any one in West Bengal. She had swept West Bengal in last Lok Sabha election and she will have to cede some sitting seats to Congress in case of alliance. BJD may need Congress help in Orrisa to stay in power and BJP has emerged a big challenger to Navin Patnayak. Congress and RLD alliance will be very formidable in Haryana. AIADMK and DMK may not go together in any circumstances. TRS may not make alliance with Congress in Telangana but Jagan Reddy may team up with Congress in Andhra. BJP will face huge challenge in Karnataka if JDS and Congress fights election together.

There are many If and Buts for this Grand alliance. Unless Conges becomes strong in its stronghold, BJP will virtually sweep many states. And in those state where regional players are strong, Grand alliance may pose challenge to BJP. But the critical question remains about the leadership. Who will lead the alliance? Will Mamta Banarjee, Nitish or Akhilesh will accept Rahul Gandhi as their leader or will consensus will emerge of Nitish or Banarjee’s name? Will Congress accept a non-Congress leader as the leader of alliance? And 2019 election will not be an assembly election, it will be a national election. The proposed alliance will have to give an alternative to Modi. As of now the grand alliance seems to be a distant dream but anything can’t be rules out in politics.