In my opinion, Ashok Gehlot
has succeeded in humiliating & sidelining Sachin Pilot. Now Sachin Pilot is
at a crossroad where he has to take the toughest decision of his life.
Many well known journalists
of Rajasthan say that there was a 12 or 18 months formula in Rajasthan
Congress. It is believed that Sachin Pilot was told by Congress high command in
December 2018 that he would be made CM in next 12 to 18 months. This may have
been the main reason that unlike Jyotiraditya Scindia, Pilot accepted
the post of Deputy CM. As per many reports, CM used to ignore his Deputy CM in
private and in public. Both CM and Deputy CM was not on talking terms and CM
used to obstruct the functioning of Deputy CM as much he could do. Ashok Gehlot
intelligently used these 18 months to undermine Sachin Pilot. This might have
been a plot by Ashok Gehlot to corner Sachin Pilot so much that he had no
option but to revolt.
Ashok Gehlot is 69 and he
will be 73 years old at time of 2023 Assembly election. It is quite natural
that Sachin Pilot may have succeeded him as Congress CM face in 2023. But Gehlot
would have liked to liked to see himself as CM candidate in 2023 and he has to
create a legacy for himself and promote his son. And once Sachin Pilot becomes
the leader then he may sideline Gehlot and his son. And Congress is a party of dynasties
(even Sachin Pilot is a dynast himself) so this fair in Indian politics these
days.
Sachin Pilot was under delusion
that he has support of 30 plus MLAs. But he forgot that Ashok Gehlot is a master
strategists and Pilot should have covered his flank. At the end Sachin has just
18 MLAs. Many Gujjar MLAs and close confidents of Sachin Pilot are now in
Gehlot camp. With such moles in Sachin camp, Gehlot camp was always one step ahead
in planning. And there is a generational war going on in Rajasthan BJP. It
seems that old gurad of BJP is backing old guard of Congress and new BJP guard
is backing new guard of Congress. BJP will never help Sachin pilot openly unless
Pilot has the number. It is believed that Gandhi family was in touch with Pilot
but Ashok Gehlot is deliberately humiliating Sachin Pilot on daily basis. Yesterday
he termed Pilot as nikamma , nakaara (useless) and a few days ago
he told that Schin Pilot has got everything in platter. At the same time, a
court battle is going on regarding (probable) disqualification of 18 MLAs of
Sachin camp.
10 days ago, Sachin Pilot
was state Congress chief and deputy CM. Today, he has nothing and he has been
braded as rebel by many Congress leaders. Some Congress leaders like Bhupesh Baghel
has dragged Sachin’s brother in law Omar Abdullah in this controversy. Now
Sachin has theoretically three option – Remain in Congress, Join BJP or create
a new party. Sachin can’t join BJP as with less numbers BJP will not back him
and BJP is pushing new leadership in the state like Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. BJP
can bigger role to Sachin Pilot in center and he can bring Gujjar votes for BJP
but Sachin Pilot will ceratinly need more power and prestige. Second Option is
that he can still remain in Congress even after this humiliation but his power
will be reduced. This is still possible if Gandhi family openly gives
commitment that he may become CM candidate for 2023 and 2028 election (as
ruling party generally loses in Rajasthan so the realistic chance for Sachin
Pilot in 2028). The third option is to create a third front. This is very risky
option but it has high reward also. With a new party, he can damage Congress
and BJP both and demonstrate Congress that they can’t win election without him.
And then he may return in Congress with a greater say and become CM in 2028. In
recent decades, third front has not succeded in the state but Pilot can still
try as he is still young leader and he has time by his side.
We will have to wait and
watch the moves of Schin Pilot closely.
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